Indices/Macroeconomic Expectations
RESEARCH

Employment Expectations Index

Market-implied payrolls, updated continuously between releases.

A continuous nonfarm-payrolls and unemployment trajectory derived from prediction-market NFP contracts and jobless-claims data — so the labor signal never goes stale between prints.

Current value
+184K
Implied next NFP
▲ +6K
Update cadence
Continuous
Status
Research
How it's constructed

Multiple independent signal layers.

KOPS indices are composed from layers that each capture a different information regime, fused with a monotonic price transformation.

Historical Base

Tracks the slow-moving base signal through an adaptive model, solved jointly across all inputs — no error propagation from sequential updates.

Market Consensus

Incorporates forward-looking information from distributed aggregation mechanisms — market-implied assessments transformed into the rating space via context-specific transforms.

Live Signal

Real-time market signals inject continuous updates between releases. The layer activates deterministically at each new data boundary and reconciles on settlement.

It = 𝓕( Σk αk · Λk(t) )
Multi-layer composition with monotonic price transformation
Live index

The signal, continuously.

NFP · macroeconomic expectationscadence: continuous
Index value over time
Source contribution
Sources

Built from the deepest information markets.

Kalshi NFP contracts
Jobless claims data
Trust model

No reference price. Constructive trust.

KOPS indices have no external price to copy — trust is derived from three complementary, verifiable mechanisms.

01

Constructive Verification

Every index update is deterministically traceable to its inputs. Given the public formula, public outcomes and public market data, any observer can independently reconstruct the value.

02

Market Anchoring

The index is continuously anchored to the deepest information markets in the world — constructed from market data, the way VIX is built from S&P 500 options, not discovered through trading.

03

Cause-Effect Guarantee

A hard causal-monotonicity clamp on every settlement: a positive outcome moves the index up or flat, never down. Verifiable from the settlement log — no trust in the operator.

Use cases

What you can build.

01

Derivative protocols

Oracle feed for futures, options or structured products referencing the index.

02

Structured vaults

Yield strategies referencing macro expectations or sector risk.

03

Risk management

Indices as inputs for on-chain insurance or hedging.

04

Data products

Analytics and research on continuous constructed indices.

Other indices

Explore the catalog.

Build on a constructed oracle.

Every index is continuous, on-chain and deterministically reconstructable from public inputs.